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Economic Perspectives
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 Quarterly Economics Discussion - Q4 2009 
An overview of economic conditions related to output, employment, housing, inflation, the value of the dollar and monetary policy.
 Alan Blinder's Economic Outlook - November 2009
PPI: Headline Up 0.3 Percent; Core Prices Drop 0.6 Percent
In October, the Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.3 percent. This followed a decline of 0.6 percent in September. The PPI has been very volatile in recent months largely due to swings in energy prices. Energy prices drove the rise in October. By contrast, the core index, which excludes prices of food and energy products, plunged 0.6 percent. Much of this was due to falling vehicle prices. From a year prior, the headline index was 1.9 percent lower and the core index was 0.7 percent higher.
At earlier stages of production, core intermediate goods prices fell 0.2 percent and were 5.6 percent lower than a year prior. At even earlier stages of production, the commodity heavy crude core goods index rose 0.5 percent but was down 1.5 percent from a year prior.
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|
Oct |
Sep |
Aug |
Jul |
Jun |
May |
|
Headline Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M/M % Change |
0.3 |
-0.6 |
1.7 |
-1.0 |
1.7 |
0.2 |
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Y/Y % Change |
-1.9 |
-4.7 |
-4.3 |
-6.4 |
-4.2 |
-4.5 |
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Core Prices |
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|
|
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|
M/M % Change |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
-0.1 |
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Y/Y % Change |
0.7 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
09.11.17 (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Industrial Production Up 0.1 Percent, Manufacturing Down 0.1 Percent
In October, industrial production rose for the fourth straight month, increasing by 0.1 percent. However, this was the smallest increase of the period, reflecting the end to a temporary surge in auto production related to the "cash for clunkers" program. Still, from a year prior, output was 7.1 percent lower.
Manufacturing output fell 0.1 percent over the month, ending a period of three consecutive increases. Mining output fell 0.2 percent and utilities output rose 1.6 percent.
The capacity utilization rate rose for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 0.2 point to 70.7 percent. There still remains heavy productive slack; however, an increasing utilization rate is an encouraging step in the right direction as it will have to continue to increase prior to widespread hiring.
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M/M % Change |
Oct |
Sep |
Aug |
Jul |
Jun |
May |
|
Total Output |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
-0.4 |
-1.1 |
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Manufacturing |
- 0.1 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.9 |
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Mining |
- 0.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
-1.4 |
-1.1 |
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Utilities |
1.6 |
- 0.2 |
0.8 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
-2.0 |
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Capacity Utilization Rate |
70.7 |
70.5 |
70.0 |
69.0 |
68.3 |
68.5 |
09.11.17 (Source: Federal Reserve)
Questions? Please contact Eric Brescia for more information.
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